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MLB analytics model · v1

JackpotBetz

1 games · 1 lineups posted · 2026 season data
auto-refresh 45 sec
Standings, starters and bullpen splits pulled live · new slate at midnight ET

An information and research tool. It projects each team's run distribution from regressed offense, opponent defense and the probable starter, then models moneyline and run line probabilities off a negative-binomial simulation. Enter published odds to compare the model against the market. No wagers are placed or accepted here.

Information only — JackpotBetz is a statistical research dashboard. It is not a sportsbook, does not take bets, and nothing here is betting advice. 21+ where legal; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Slate date
Tracking logBacktestAccountMembership
Overall record
2023–2025 backtest
BacktestYour log
Model ML record
55.8%
2,264 plays · +4.96% ROI
Model RL record
53.5%
2,085 plays · +9.79% ROI
Your logged picks
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No picks logged yet
Your ROI
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Log picks to calculate

Q's Picks

0 of 2 today

No picks pinned for 2026-10-11 yet — check back before first pitch.

Today's picks
Moneyline (1)
  • B
    MIL ML
    LAD @ MIL · 8:00 PM
    Win %
    56.4%
    fair -130
    Edge
    —
Run line (1)
  • A
    LAD +1.5
    LAD @ MIL · 8:00 PM
    Win %
    61.5%
    fair -160
    Edge
    —

Win % is the model's projected chance; Edge is model minus the no-vig market price from the odds you've entered, with EV per $100 staked. Rows highlight green when the bet is +EV. Tier A = strongest model edge, B = solid lean. Weak leans are filtered out.

Underdog radar

model vs. records — no sportsbook required
LAD @ MIL
8:00 PM · park 1.00x
0.0pp
Model
50.0%
Chalk
50.0%
+1.5
50%
    fair -100

    "Chalk" is the price a team's record alone implies — the view a market opener starts from. The radar ranks dogs where the full model (skill-adjusted starters, park run environment, recent form, run variance) disagrees with that record-only view, so live dogs surface even before any sportsbook number is entered.

    Lead game

    Largest model edge on the board
    LAD @ MIL · 8:00 PM · American Family Field · Pre-Game
    Lineups in
    Lean MIL 50%
    Los Angeles Dodgers100-62
    Tarik Skubal (L) · no MLB line
    0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 49-32 · L10 8-2
    Proj runs 0.00
    Lineup · posted
    1. 1. Mookie Betts · SS
    2. 2. Freddie Freeman · 1B
    3. 3. Will Smith · C
    4. 4. Shohei Ohtani · DH
    5. 5. Teoscar Hernández · LF
    6. 6. Max Muncy · 3B
    7. 7. Andy Pages · CF
    8. 8. Kyle Tucker · RF
    9. 9. Enrique Hernández · 2B
    Injured list (8)
    Blake Treinen (P) · Forty Man · Will Klein (P) · Injured 60-Day · Brusdar Graterol (P) · Injured 60-Day · Ben Casparius (P) · Injured 60-Day · Jake Cousins (P) · Injured 60-Day · Hyeseong Kim (2B) · Forty Man · +2 more
    Milwaukee Brewers103-59
    Jacob Misiorowski (R) · no MLB line
    0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 55-26 · L10 8-2
    Proj runs 0.00
    Lineup · posted
    1. 1. Jackson Chourio · LF
    2. 2. Brice Turang · 2B
    3. 3. William Contreras · C
    4. 4. Jake Bauers · 1B
    5. 5. Andrew Vaughn · DH
    6. 6. Garrett Mitchell · CF
    7. 7. Cooper Pratt · SS
    8. 8. Luis Lara · RF
    9. 9. Joey Ortiz · 3B
    Injured list (4)
    Brian Fitzpatrick (P) · Injured 60-Day · Angel Zerpa (P) · Injured 60-Day · Brandon Woodruff (SP) · Injured 60-Day · Quinn Priester (SP) · Injured 60-Day
    Moneyline
    Los Angeles Dodgers ML
    away
    Win prob
    50.0%
    Fair
    -100
    Book
    Edge
    —
    EV / $100
    —
    Milwaukee Brewers ML
    home
    Win prob
    50.0%
    Fair
    -100
    Book
    Edge
    —
    EV / $100
    —
    Run line (1.5)
    Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5
    underdog run line
    Win prob
    50.0%
    Fair
    -100
    Book
    Edge
    —
    EV / $100
    —
    Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
    favorite run line
    Win prob
    50.0%
    Fair
    -100
    Book
    Edge
    —
    EV / $100
    —
    Proj total 0.00

    Full slate

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